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Gold prices continue to fluctuate.

Gold prices have shown a volatile pattern in the short term, affected by the weakening of the US dollar and changes in sentiment due to easing geopolitical tensions.

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13

2025-06

Gold prices rise again! Multiple risks fuel safe-haven demand.

From the perspective of the international market, the tense situation in the Middle East, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the continued high uncertainty surrounding the US Trump administration's tariff policies have driven up gold prices due to increased risk aversion in the market. Furthermore, a significant recent change in the gold market is that gold has become the second-largest reserve asset for central banks globally. How should the future trend of gold prices be viewed? Several analysts have indicated that in the short term, gold prices may fluctuate due to factors such as tariff easing and sudden changes in the geopolitical situation; in the medium to long term, gold prices are still in an upward channel.

07

2025-06

Trump says peace between Russia and Ukraine is hopeless, and the war is likely to continue, which is expected to continue to attract safe-haven buying for gold.

As the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters its third year, global attention is once again focused on this geopolitical crisis. According to Dow Jones Newswires, US President Donald Trump made startling remarks at the White House on Thursday (June 5), stating that neither Russia nor Ukraine is prepared for peace, and that both sides may "continue fighting" until one side is willing to compromise. This statement not only signals the failure of his attempts to broker peace, but also introduces new uncertainty to the global geopolitical and economic markets.

29

2025-05

Gold prices return to $3300! Wall Street banks show significant divergence in long-term outlook

In fact, as gold prices fluctuate, Wall Street's major banks have recently shown a clear divergence in their views on gold prices. Unlike Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, which are optimistic about gold's performance, Citigroup believes that the long-term outlook for gold prices is not optimistic.

09

2025-05

The US dollar index rebounded and risk aversion weakened, with gold maintaining high-level volatility.

Although gold prices rose this week, market volatility has clearly increased. While the US-UK agreement is symbolic, its content is limited and insufficient to alleviate concerns about a global economic slowdown. Therefore, gold prices will continue to fluctuate between safe havens and policy signals, closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and global trade sentiment.

18

2025-04

A chief economist's perspective on the past, present, and future of gold

The global over-issuance and devaluation of currencies are driving increased demand for gold. Therefore, the long-term logic of gold's rise is valid. Central banks around the world are increasing their gold holdings, which is a significant signal. The rise of gold reflects the weakening reality of the US dollar's hegemony. Gold has become a pricing "anchor" during times of uncertainty. The current gold bull market logic is complete. As for its duration, we should closely monitor the progress of technology, cryptocurrencies, debt issues, and the monetary system.

02

2025-04

Global risk assets are fluctuating as the market waits for the tariff situation to become clear.

Global financial markets are entering a key policy window this week, with the United States set to launch reciprocal tariffs on April 2, triggering a chain reaction in the market. The three major US stock indices fell collectively last week, and the Asia-Pacific market was under pressure simultaneously. Safe-haven funds pushed the spot price of gold to a record high of $3149.03 per ounce. As the policy implementation date approaches, the market's visibility into the US economic policy framework is gradually improving. Some institutions say that policy predictability is increasing and positive signals are brewing; other institutions are concerned about the performance of risk assets. Despite the surge in short-term volatility, the market generally believes that April 2 will set the tone for the financial markets in the coming months.

23

2025-03

How long will this gold bull market last? We may be experiencing a 20-year gold bull market (2019-2039)

This article is the third in the "Gold Research Trilogy." The second article, "The Law of Gold Price Fluctuations," has three main conclusions. First, gold and virtual currencies have broken away from the monetary system and can diversify the risks brought about by the monetary system. Gold is one of the few assets that has both broken away from the monetary system and gained widespread "consensus." Although Bitcoin has also broken away from the monetary system, the "consensus" it has gained is far less widespread than gold. We are fairly certain that gold will remain an indispensable means of "wealth storage" in the future. Second, strong currencies are the foundation of the global monetary system. When the status of a strong currency is weakened by certain factors, a gold bull market appears; when the market anticipates that this factor will dissipate, the gold bull market ends. Third, this gold bull market has two driving forces: concerns about the rapid growth of US debt, and the "rise of China" challenging the status of the US dollar.

28

2025-02

Gold falls below the 2900 mark as technical indicators resume a downward trend

(February 28) During Asian trading hours, spot gold saw a slight rebound. As the week closes, gold prices appear set for their first decline of 2025. Influenced by a surge in the US dollar, prices plummeted to their lowest level in over two weeks on Thursday. Gold's daily candlestick chart shows a significant drop, initiating a short-term downward trend. The price fell below the 2900 mark and closed at a low, with the MACD also showing a bearish crossover. There is still room for further short-term adjustment.

21

2025-02

Safe-haven demand triggered by tariff threats pushes spot gold to a record high

Uncertainty increased market safe-haven demand after US President Trump issued new tariff threats, pushing gold prices to a record high on Wednesday.

12

2025-02

Fed Chair's Latest Remarks: No Rush to Cut Rates! Gold Prices Plunge!

“With the increasing risks implicit in the high level of US debt and the global trend of de-dollarization, US states are increasingly valuing gold as an alternative currency.” Liu Yuxuan said, however, in the states that have passed the bill, the liquidity of gold as a currency is relatively limited, and no mandatory measures have been taken, so the actual impact is still relatively limited. “With strong global market safe-haven demand in 2025, especially against the backdrop of continuous geopolitical risks and high uncertainty in the global economy, central banks, financial institutions, and investors are increasing their gold allocation, partly ignoring traditional interest rate factors. Investors not only see gold as an asset linked to US Treasury yields, but also attach greater importance to its safe-haven role in financial crises, currency devaluation, and global economic uncertainty, significantly boosting gold's allocation value among major asset classes.” Gu Fengda said that the strong performance of gold prices is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors, and future trends will still be affected by the combined influence of global economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, and market safe-haven demand. Looking ahead to the first half of 2025, the high point of gold prices is expected to break through the $3,000 per ounce mark.

04

2025-02

Top View | Minsheng Securities Qiu Zuxue: Gold prices are expected to break through $3000 in the Year of the Snake

Looking ahead to 2025, Qiu Zuxue stated that there are still many internal and external variables affecting the metals industry. Externally, the uncertainty of the overseas environment and the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are worth noting. "Although the direction of future Fed rate cuts is quite certain, there will always be some fluctuations between reality and expectations regarding the path, magnitude, and pace of rate cuts." "Internally, as the policy tone continues to warm, the continued efforts of policies represented by domestic demand within 2025 are highly certain. At the same time, whether it's fiscal or monetary policy, a friendly 'dual easing' is the general trend." said Qiu Zuxue. Overall, Qiu Zuxue is optimistic about the "spring rally" of the metal sector in the Year of the Snake and recommends that investors pay close attention. "On the one hand, from the calendar effect perspective, the performance of the metal sector in spring is stronger than in other seasons. At the beginning of the year, whether it's credit or economic expectations, the environment is relatively friendly. On the other hand, with continued policy efforts, investors are relatively optimistic about the economic outlook for the whole year, and this will also be coupled with the demand for replenishing inventories in the industrial chain at the beginning of the year." Qiu Zuxue pointed out. Gold prices are expected to break through $3,000 per ounce Regarding gold, which reached record highs in 2024, Qiu Zuxue stated that the core driving factors are twofold: real interest rates and safe haven demand. "Last year's record highs in gold prices were closely related to the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy would turn a corner. In the first half of last year, US nominal interest rates remained relatively high. With the decline in inflation, the Fed's entry into a rate-cutting cycle was quite clear. However, before the rate cuts actually landed, market expectations fluctuated repeatedly." In the second half of 2024, as the Fed officially entered the rate-cutting cycle, nominal interest rates fell. Since expectations for US inflation have begun to fall, the actual US real interest rate is actually going down. Conventionally, when real interest rates fall, it means that the investment value of gold increases significantly. "At the same time, under the demand for safe haven assets, the pace of gold purchases by central banks around the world is still quite rapid. Coupled with the decline in US real interest rates, the combination of these two factors has pushed gold prices to historic highs." Qiu Zuxue emphasized that although gold prices, the US dollar, and US real interest rates showed significant divergence in 2024, the main reason was that under the relatively chaotic and complex external environment, investors had a strong demand for safe haven assets, leading to a significant shift in the weight of factors affecting gold prices. "Overall, I believe that the analytical framework for gold, which is centered on real interest rates, remains fundamentally unchanged." Looking ahead to the Year of the Snake, Qiu Zuxue stated that he remains optimistic about the performance of gold prices in 2025. On the one hand, the Fed has officially entered the rate-cutting cycle, and global monetary easing in 2025 is directional. "On the other hand, the external environment in the next few years will still be relatively chaotic, and the demand for safe haven assets will be strong. From the perspective of asset allocation, the allocation ratio of gold still has room for increase." Gold prices are expected to continue their strong upward trend in 2025. "From an optimistic perspective, gold prices are very likely to break through $3,000 per ounce this year."

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