The US dollar index rebounded and risk aversion weakened, with gold maintaining high-level volatility.
Although gold prices rose this week, market volatility has clearly increased. While the US-UK agreement is symbolic, its content is limited and insufficient to alleviate concerns about a global economic slowdown. Therefore, gold prices will continue to fluctuate between safe havens and policy signals, closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and global trade sentiment.
Time:
2025-05-09 17:00
The gold market behaved like a rollercoaster, with prices surging nearly 6% in the first two days due to safe-haven demand, only to see those gains significantly erased later. Spot gold continued its decline during the Asian trading session on Friday.
The United States and the United Kingdom reached a new trade agreement, including faster customs procedures and greater market access for US exports, while the UK received minor concessions on tariffs for automobiles, steel, and aluminum products. However, the agreement did not achieve the "comprehensive agreement" previously promised by Trump.
Trump expressed optimism about trade talks with Asian countries this weekend, stating that if the talks go well, he would consider lowering the 145% tariffs on some goods.
The release of strong US employment data, coupled with the US-UK agreement boosting risk sentiment, led investors to sell government bonds and shift towards risk assets such as stocks, causing US Treasury yields to rise. This made gold's non-interest-bearing nature somewhat disadvantageous under the expectation of interest rate hikes.
Analysts point out that if the US adopts a more moderate stance on trade, safe-haven demand will weaken, which has been a key support for gold's more than 25% rise this year.
Although the US dollar index rose 0.5% this week, its suppressive effect on gold prices was limited. At the same time, silver, palladium, and platinum prices also saw slight increases, indicating that the market still maintains a certain demand for precious metals as a whole.
Technically, the gold daily chart shows a pattern of high-level consolidation. Overall, it remains within an upward channel. Short-term moving averages (5-day and 10-day) formed a golden cross, indicating that short-term buying remains strong, but the 20-day moving average is flattening, suggesting that the upward momentum is slowing.
The MACD momentum column has shortened, and the dual lines have dulled at high levels, indicating weakening upward momentum and a risk of technical correction. The RSI indicator is at 64, although not in overbought territory, it is approaching the pressure zone.
The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating that the market is entering a consolidation period. If gold prices can effectively break through the previous high of $3350, the next target will be $3400; if it falls below the support level of $3270, it may seek support at $3200 in the short term. Overall, the short-term trend of gold is strong, but the technical pattern suggests the need to guard against the risk of high-level consolidation and pullback.
Although gold prices recorded gains this week, market volatility has clearly increased. While the US-UK agreement has symbolic significance, its content is limited and insufficient to alleviate concerns about a global economic slowdown. Therefore, gold's trajectory will continue to fluctuate between safe-haven demand and policy signals, with close attention paid to Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and global trade sentiment.
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Although gold prices rose this week, market volatility has clearly increased. While the US-UK agreement is symbolic, its content is limited and insufficient to alleviate concerns about a global economic slowdown. Therefore, gold prices will continue to fluctuate between safe havens and policy signals, closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and global trade sentiment.