Trump says peace between Russia and Ukraine is hopeless, and the war is likely to continue, which is expected to continue to attract safe-haven buying for gold.

As the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters its third year, global attention is once again focused on this geopolitical crisis. According to Dow Jones, US President Donald Trump made shocking remarks at the White House on Thursday (June 5), stating that neither Russia nor Ukraine is prepared for peace, and that the two sides may "continue fighting" until one side is willing to compromise. This statement not only marks the failure of his peace efforts but also brings new uncertainty to the global geopolitical and economic markets.

　 Trump Admits Failure of Peace Efforts: Russia-Ukraine Conflict to Continue

　　During a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the Oval Office, Trump publicly acknowledged for the first time that a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely in the short term. He compared the current situation to "children arguing in a park" or "hockey players fighting," suggesting that both sides are suffering great losses but still have no intention of a ceasefire. Trump stated that Russian President Putin vowed to retaliate massively against Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian airports, while Ukraine has shown no signs of compromise. This strong statement reflects that the Trump administration has almost no room to maneuver in promoting peace talks.

　　The Trump administration had attempted to bring about a ceasefire by restarting relations with Moscow and reducing military aid to Ukraine. However, this strategy did not achieve the expected results. Putin has consistently refused to end the war on terms acceptable to Ukraine, leading to dwindling options for the White House. Analysts point out that Trump's remarks are tantamount to "surrendering" to the complexity and persistence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which will not only have a profound impact on the situation in Ukraine but may also change the role of the United States in global geopolitics.

　　The Dilemma of US Policy: Aid to Ukraine or Improved US-Russia Relations?

　　The Trump administration's policy adjustments have sparked widespread controversy. On the one hand, the US is still providing intelligence support to Ukraine, helping it to defend against Russia's aggression, and some weapons approved during the Biden administration are still being sent to the battlefield. However, the Trump administration not only suspended new military aid programs but also quietly halted key anti-drone technology assistance. This shows that Trump has significantly weakened his support for Ukraine, attempting to avoid further angering Russia to achieve his larger goal of improving US-Russia relations.

　　It is noteworthy that Trump revealed that Putin proactively proposed assisting the US in reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran. This proposal indicates that even as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, Putin still hopes to maintain a certain degree of cooperation with the US. However, analysts are skeptical. Andrea Kendall-Taylor of the Center for a New American Security points out that Putin's strategy is to hope to reduce Trump's support for Ukraine without making any concessions, while also normalizing US-Russia relations. This strategy of "having your cake and eating it too" may be a win-win for Russia, but it is fraught with risks for Ukraine and the US.

　　Emma Ashford of the Stimson Center further analyzes that Putin's strategy is not clever. The ongoing war has resulted in heavy casualties and huge expenses for Russia, further isolating it globally. If Putin chose to reach an agreement with Trump and lift sanctions, he might more effectively achieve his strategic goals. However, Putin seems to prefer to gain more Ukrainian territory through military means, which is considered a "bad deal."

　　Europe's Concerns and Germany's Efforts

　　German Chancellor Merz's visit to the White House aims to persuade Trump to continue focusing on Europe's fate. As a major pillar of the European economy and politics, Germany is highly dependent on its trade relationship with the US. If Trump fulfills his threat to impose high tariffs on European goods, Germany, as an export-oriented economy, will suffer a severe blow. Currently, Trump has postponed the plan to impose a 50% tariff on European exports to July 9, but the German automotive industry is already facing pressure from a 25% tariff.

　　Merz also attempted to push for further sanctions against Russia to force it back to the negotiating table. US Senator Lindsey Graham recently proposed a bill that plans to impose a 500% tariff on countries that buy Russian oil, which Merz supports. However, Trump made it clear that this bill cannot proceed without his approval. He emphasized that Graham's proposal is too "harsh" and hinted that his stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict is that both sides are responsible. This attitude may further weaken US support for Ukraine and unsettle European allies.

　　In addition, Merz hopes to secure continued US commitment to NATO by increasing German defense spending. Germany has recently increased its military budget from 2.1% of GDP to 3.5% and plans to invest more in defense infrastructure. Despite this, Germany's military strength remains weak due to years of underinvestment. Trump expressed support for this and reiterated that the US military presence in Germany is beneficial to both sides. However, European countries remain concerned that Trump may further weaken his commitment to NATO in the future.

　　The Subtle Relationship Between Trump and Merz

　　Although Trump and Merz differ greatly in personality and style—Trump is known for his outspokenness and humor, while Merz is more serious—their shared background as businessmen has allowed them to find common ground on some issues. During the meeting, both sides praised each other and pledged to strengthen cooperation on trade issues. However, Trump's unpredictability on trade and geopolitical issues makes Merz's efforts challenging. Recent clashes between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and South African President Ramaphosa show that meetings with Trump are often difficult to predict the outcome. While Merz's visit was friendly, whether it can truly influence Trump's policies remains unknown.

　　 Jaundice Gold price Price impact analysis

The continued escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has undoubtedly brought new uncertainties to the global economy, and geopolitical   risks have always been an important factor driving up gold prices. Trump's latest statement indicates that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is unlikely to end in the short term, which may further exacerbate risk aversion in global markets. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is usually favored by investors when uncertainty increases. In addition, the Trump administration's suspension of military aid to Ukraine and its strategy of seeking to improve US-Russia relations may lead to fluctuations in the US dollar index, indirectly pushing up gold prices.

　　However, if Trump reaches cooperation with Russia in other areas (such as the Iran nuclear deal), it may temporarily ease some geopolitical tensions, weakening the safe-haven demand for gold. On the other hand, Trump's threat to impose tariffs on European goods may trigger global trade friction, further pushing up inflation expectations, and inflation is often a catalyst for rising gold prices. Overall, the continued Russia-Ukraine conflict and the dual uncertainty of Trump's policies may provide upward support for gold prices in the short term, but the long-term trend still needs to observe further developments in the global economy and geopolitics.

　　Conclusion

　　Trump's latest statement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict marks a temporary setback in his peacemaking efforts and introduces new variables into the global geopolitical and economic markets. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the fluctuating US policy, the anxieties of European allies, and the potential for trade friction all contribute to the complexity of the situation. For the gold market, geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty may drive gold prices higher in the short term, but investors should closely monitor the Trump administration's subsequent policies and the progress of the Russia-Ukraine situation to determine the long-term trend of gold prices. At this volatile moment, global attention will remain focused on the White House's next move.