Next Week's Outlook: Will the Fed Send a Key Signal Next Week? Gold Bears Are Eyeing This Key Level
After four consecutive weeks of gains, gold fluctuated between key technical levels, struggling to make a decisive move in either direction. After breaking above $1820 on Tuesday, gold prices reversed lower in the latter half of the week, but closed the week slightly above the key 100-day moving average, currently at $1796.
Time:
2021-07-24 10:37
After four consecutive weeks of gains, gold fluctuated between key technical levels, struggling to make a decisive move in either direction. After breaking above $1820 on Tuesday, USD the price of gold reversed course in the latter half of the week, but closed slightly above the key 100-day moving average, currently at $1796 this week. What happened last week?
In the absence of significant macroeconomic data and fundamental developments, risk perception was still the main driver of the market earlier this week. Major Wall Street indices fell sharply on Monday and Tuesday, creating demand for the dollar. However, gold also benefited from safe-haven inflows, suggesting that the precious metal is seeking to regain its safe-haven status.
Although the dollar lost its strength mid-week as market sentiment improved, gold continued to trade sideways within a weekly range.
On Thursday, the US Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims in the week ended July 17 were 419,000. This figure was below market expectations of 350,000, but was largely ignored by market participants. Other data released by the US showed that existing home sales rose 1.4% monthly, while the national median existing-home price rose 23.4% from June 2020 to $363,000.
In addition,
the European Central Bank announced on the same day that it would maintain the interest rate for its main refinancing operations unchanged, with the marginal lending facility and deposit facility rates remaining at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively, in line with expectations. In its policy statement, the ECB revised its forward guidance and said it would allow inflation to temporarily overshoot before taking policy action. The ECB's commitment to a dovish policy outlook put pressure on the euro and helped the dollar continue to outperform its rivals. On Friday (July 23), IHS Markit's preliminary
A large amount of important data will be released next week. Next Tuesday, the US will release June durable goods data, along with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. The preliminary July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed a negative change in consumer sentiment, with inflation expectations rising sharply. A similar situation in the Conference Board's report could boost the dollar.
Next Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its interest rate decision and release a monetary policy statement. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Chairman Powell said in his prepared remarks at a congressional hearing earlier this month that the job market is still some way from making the progress needed to begin reducing bond purchases. However, policymakers are expected to discuss tapering bond purchases at next week's meeting, and signals of reduced asset purchases before the end of the year could boost the dollar. However, if
the Federal Reserve policy outlook turns hawkish and triggers a sell-off in US stocks, gold prices may still remain resilient. On the other hand, due to uncertainty caused by the delta variant of the coronavirus, the Fed may opt for a more cautious tone and suggest a possible delay in tapering bond purchases, severely depressing the dollar. Next Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its preliminary estimate of second-quarter GDP growth,
FXStreet wrote that the near-term technical outlook for gold remains neutral, biased to the downside, as prices remain near the lower end of a weekly consolidation channel. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart has fallen below 50, indicating that buyers are struggling to maintain control.
Nevertheless, sellers may wait for gold to close below $1796 (100-day moving average) before seeking to increase downward pressure. If it falls below this level, $1790 (Friday's low) will act as temporary support, and a break below this level will further target $1775 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June uptrend).
尽管如此，卖家可能会等待黄金日线收盘价跌破1796美元(100日移动均线)，然后寻求加大看跌压力。如跌至该水平下方，1790美元(周五最低点)将充当临时支撑，如失守将进一步下看1775美元(4-6月上行趋势的61.8斐波那契回档位)。
另一方面，200日移动均线似乎在1820美元处形成了强劲阻力位。如果买家将价格推高至该阻力之上，1830美元(38.2%的斐波那契回档位)和1835美元(50日移动均线)可能被视为下一个目标价。
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