加息押注再消耗 黄金回落触底迹象初显预待反弹
国际黄金开盘处于隔夜低点附近盘整，不过美股避险需求仍然存在，对金价跌势有所限制。另外美指早盘动力减弱对其产生一定的支撑，同时，技术上，已经初步展现止跌信号，走势料存在反弹需求。
Time:
2022-01-29 07:57
1月28日：上交易日周四（1月27日）：国际黄金伦敦金再度大幅走低收阴，延续前一日跌势至逾两周低点。
走势上，金价(1793.10, -1.90, -0.11%)自亚市开于1819.76美元/盎司，短暂先行走高，录得日内高点1821.94美元，便一路保持震荡走低，延续至美盘尾部时段录得日内低点1791.85美元，最终有所震荡止跌，收于1796.93美元，日振幅30.09美元，收跌22.83美元，跌幅1.25%。
影响上，一方面技术上受到前日回落压力，以及持续运行在中轨下方的卖盘压力，另一方面，晚间强劲的美国经济数据增强了美联储3月份加息的可能性，导致美元指数走强创2020年7月以来新高至97.31，而打压金价再度走低。
展望今日周五（1月28日）：国际黄金开盘处于隔夜低点附近盘整，不过美股避险需求仍然存在，对金价跌势有所限制。另外美指早盘动力减弱对其产生一定的支撑，同时，技术上，已经初步展现止跌信号，走势料存在反弹需求。
日内将重点关注美国12月PCE物价指数，以及美国1月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值。
根据昨日周四公布的去年10月至12月的国内生产总值（GDP）折合成年率增长6.9%。相对2021年GDP年化增长率为5.7%，为自1984年以来最强劲的增速来看，晚间数据整体也将再度表现良好，但PCE指数也是通胀指标，其再度走强，将会对金价产生支撑力，故此不排除今日有触底反弹风险。
基本面上，此前一天，美联储鲍威尔表示，可能在未来几个月更快、更大幅度地加息，同时还指出，在不威胁劳动力市场的情况下，提高利率的空间很大，不排除在每次联邦公开市场委员会会议上都加息的言论。超预期鹰派的美联储助推美元连续飙升至2020年7月以来的高点，令金价连续承压。
但观点上，张尧浠认为；连续两日的大幅走低，已是对美联储主席鲍威尔关于加息的言论进一步消化。纵观历史，没有那一项单独的政策会对金价造成持续性打压，除非了接连二三的实施，如同之前疫情初始期间的不断宽松，使得金价不断走高。
目前来看，只有在3月份加息后，5月份加息预期再度令市场板上钉钉，金价才会持续走低，进一步走低至千七关口一线。
不过，个人认为，美联储紧缩幅度不太可能超过目前市场的定价。
去年美国12月份零售销售不及预期，且领先指标采购经理人指数（PMI）见顶，所以预期今年美国经济动能前高后低，可能使得美联储在下半年调整紧缩政策节奏。
其次，美国国债收益率曲线变平，显示市场开始担心美联储过度紧缩会损及经济增长，未来几个月的某些时刻，美联储可能会需要略微缓和鹰派论调。
第三则是通胀见顶，随着经济成长和消费需求放缓，预计企业正在进行的补库存活动和资本支出将提振供给面和生产力，这将控制商品价格通胀。
第四，疫苗接种更加普及以及新冠特效药问世预期将令更多人重返工作岗位，缓解薪资上涨压力。
最后则是预期鸽派成员加入美联储，随着美国总统拜登提名的3名即将加入美联储7人理事会的成员，会使得美联储理事会更加鸽派，从而在处理通胀预期之际，仍关注支持经济增长。
综合而言，金价2022下半年到2023年上半年将是金价长线的不错买入机会。但就此前而言，金价将保持月图级别的横向震荡模式走盘。操作上，关注周线及日线走势信号操作即可。具体思路及点位参考下方技术分析：
技术上：周线级别：金价本周遇阻回落后，目前保持其力度承压运行，且一举收复前两周涨幅，走势暂时受到中轨支撑以及近期反弹趋势的支撑有所止跌，不过附图指标信号转弱，主图动力指标暗示回落压力仍在，不排除跌破支撑，并进一步走低至1770美元附近的风险。故此在现在的较为强大的支撑位置附近，如有反弹，未能站上1836美元上方，则仍有回落需求。
日线级别：金价本周连续两日大幅走低回落，附图指标信号保持空头信号，但主图上，金价在触及100日均线支撑附近后有所止跌，动力指标也显示有触底迹象，故此在隔夜低点附近可以博取一定的反弹需求，这里已在昨日提前给出策略。如再度刷新隔夜低点，将看向至1780美元附近再度博取反弹。
但如走出反弹，也难以再突破1850美元阻力，因为金自去年初以来，一直处于三角趋势的震荡缩减，高点在不断下降，低点也在不断上升。故此目前来看，则有两个位置可以博取反弹，一个就是隔夜低点附近，一个就是三角趋势支撑的1775美元附近。
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