黄金周评：欧银激进加息推举欧元，助黄金重回1700上方
本周现货黄金涨幅约1.03%，这是金价连续五周下跌后录得的首周上涨。本周上涨约18美元/盎司，振幅2.63%，高点低点相差约45美元，低点1680.79美元/盎司，刷新了16个月以来的新低。其中周四周五录得涨幅，周四涨幅最大为1.30%。本周金价触及低点后上行调整，回到1700美元上方。相应地，本周美元指数(106.5676, -0.0250, -0.02%)在连续上涨三周后录得首周下跌，跌幅约0.76%，低点为106.3637。上周美元指数触及2003年以来的高点至109.3032。
Time:
2022-07-24 16:56
本周现货黄金涨幅约1.03%，这是金价连续五周下跌后录得的首周上涨。本周上涨约18美元/盎司，振幅2.63%，高点低点相差约45美元，低点1680.79美元/盎司，刷新了16个月以来的新低。其中周四周五录得涨幅，周四涨幅最大为1.30%。本周金价触及低点后上行调整，回到1700美元上方。相应地，本周美元指数(106.5676, -0.0250, -0.02%)在连续上涨三周后录得首周下跌，跌幅约0.76%，低点为106.3637。上周美元指数触及2003年以来的高点至109.3032。
欧洲央行激进加息，欧元(1.0210, -0.0016, -0.16%)兑美元上涨，黄金重回1700美元上方
尽管欧洲经济面临日益增长的下行风险，但欧洲央行仍将通胀视为即将到来的最大威胁，日益严重的通胀威胁促使欧洲央行出乎市场意料地全面加息50个基点，而不是此前预计的25个基点，使得欧元区存款机制利率一举摆脱了负利率，目前为零利率，这是欧洲央行11年来首次加息。此举为欧元兑美元汇率提供了新的动能，打压了美元，进而推动金价重回每盎司1700美元上方。
金价同时也受到原油价格大幅消减早前的跌幅的提振，美国国债收益率下降和美元指数走弱抑制了黄金的抛售。本周金价在触及16个月以来的低点1680.79美元/盎司后，大量空头回补和逢低吸纳买盘涌入，也助推了金价上涨。
本周美国劳工部公布，截止7月16日当周，美国初请失业金人数为25.1万，高于预期的24万，前一周为24.4万。自3月份达到接近记录低点以来，初请失业金人数逐步上升，现在比当时的低点高了8.5万。续请失业金人数增加了5.1万，为去年11月以来的最大增幅，达到138.4万，高于预期的134万，为4月以来的最高，前一周为133.1万。情况不容乐观。
虽然6月非农数据较为乐观，但是劳动力市场的表现相对滞后于直接的经济现状，市场已经隐现一丝不安。目前市场注意力逐渐转向美国今年第二季度的GDP增长上，如果再次录得负增长，那么经济衰退就非常明显了。此前亚特兰大联邦储备银行数据追踪机构的数据显示，第一季度美国GDP下降1.6%，如果第二季度再次下降，实际上美国经济已经陷入技术性衰退。因此，加上美联储为抑制通胀不断加息的举措（预计下周再次加息75个基点，是今年连续第四次加息），人们对美国经济陷入衰退的担忧重现升温，黄金也因此获得了持续的支撑。
机构观点
Moor Analytics的创始人Michael Moor表示，黄金最近几天在每盎司1700美元左右盘整，这可能表明，市场的熊市势头已经过去了。金价已经守在略低于每盎司1700美元的关键技术极限水平，可能会在近期看到一个看涨的修正。如果能守住1700美元作为支撑，金价仍有可能重回2000美元上方的高位。如果金价突破1850美元，这将是一个信号，表明金价很可能再次飙升。
Johns Hopkins University应用经济学教授Steve Hanke表示，美国经历了41年来最大的通胀，6月CPI 同比上涨9.1%，这可能是它达到的最高水平，目前可能已经见顶。并补充说，根据他的计算，到年底美国出现衰退的可能性为70%。
MKS PAMP金属策略主管Nicky Shiels在最近的一份研究报告中说，她正在密切关注铜/金的比率，因为它跌至一个关键水平。尽管金价一直在挣扎，跌至每盎司1700美元，但它的表现好过了铜。今年迄今为止，铜价已累计下跌逾26%。与此同时，金价下跌了约7%。金和铜的共同价格走势正在向市场发出通缩信号，该比率显示出稳固的滞胀环境。铜/金比率已降至4.3，这可能表明美联储的货币政策已经过于紧缩。这可能为黄金提供新的看涨势头，因其继续持有关键支撑。
美国商品期货交易委员会CFTC的最新数据显示，对冲基金三年来首次完全看空黄金。CFTC截止7月12日当周分项交易商报告显示，基金经理削减Comex黄金期货投机性总多头仓位11803个，至91669个。与此同时，空头仓位增加11364个，至97802个。自2019年5月以来，黄金的投机性头寸首次转为净空仓6133个合约。
黄金技术分析
金价已经上摸前期阻力位，四小时图上看位于1697.69-1723.27美元。积极的买盘推动金价突破20周期指数移动平均线EMA(1708.65美元)。此外，黄金已经上摸50周期EMA(1718.06美元)，这表明黄金多头在长期下跌后正试图进行反击。
同时，相对强弱指数RSI(14)已经从看空的20.00-40.00区间转入40.00-60.00区间，这表明黄金多头并不是积极看空。
黄金多头已经突破周一高点1723.97美元，这将推动该资产达到7月14日1733.68美元的高点，随后是7月13日1745.49美元的高点。
或者，该资产更广泛的疲软可能再次触发，金价将在放弃1700美元的心理支撑后，发现自己接近周四的低点，接近1680美元。突破前者将迫使该资产形成年度新低，约1670美元。
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