加息预期抬升 预计短期内黄金价格上行空间收窄
受中美地缘政治因素影响，前期美众议长佩洛西窜访台湾，导致的不确定性，引发避险情绪抬升。美国7月非农数据好于预期，美国消费者通胀预期明显回落，情绪高涨，贵金属价格迅速反弹。但是旧金山联邦储备银行行长戴利表示，美联储目前在对抗高通胀的斗争中“宣布胜利”还为时过早。她不排除美联储在9月份下次政策会议上连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，但她也暗示初步支持美联储放缓加息步伐，称9月加息0.5个百分点是她的基本立场。加息预期抬升，一定程度抑制贵金属价格持续上行，预计短期内黄金价格上行空间收窄。
Time:
2022-08-14 15:07
据生意社数据显示，8月11日白银(20.84, 0.49, 2.42%)市场早盘均价4474元/千克，日跌0.01%，较月初（8月1日）现货市场价格早盘均价4432.67元/千克，上涨0.93%；较年初（1月1日）现货市场价格早盘均价4770元/千克，跌幅为6.21%。
8月11日黄金现货市场价格388.99元/克，日跌0.52%，较月初（8月1日）现货市场价格早盘均价381.93元/克，上涨1.85%；较年初（1月1日）现货市场价格早盘均价372.37元/千克，涨幅为4.46%。
长周期来看，贵金属价格走势趋同性较好，长趋势基本一致，振幅略有不同。
宏观政策面
1． 国内政策面
据中国央行数据，中国7月末黄金储备报6264万盎司（约1948.32吨），与上个月持平。
据海关总署（7日）公布的数据，今年前7个月，我国外贸进出口总值23.6万亿元，同比增长10.4%。其中，出口13.37万亿元，同比增长14.7%；进口10.23万亿元，同比增长5.3%。
2． 国际政策面
美国7月季调后非农就业人口增加52.8万人，创今年2月以来最大增幅。美国7月失业率录得3.5%，创2020年2月以来新低。美国非农数据好于预期。
后市预测
受中美地缘政治因素影响，前期美众议长佩洛西窜访台湾，导致的不确定性，引发避险情绪抬升。美国7月非农数据好于预期，美国消费者通胀预期明显回落，情绪高涨，贵金属价格迅速反弹。但是旧金山联邦储备银行行长戴利表示，美联储目前在对抗高通胀的斗争中“宣布胜利”还为时过早。她不排除美联储在9月份下次政策会议上连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，但她也暗示初步支持美联储放缓加息步伐，称9月加息0.5个百分点是她的基本立场。加息预期抬升，一定程度抑制贵金属价格持续上行，预计短期内黄金价(1818.92, 11.72, 0.65%)格上行空间收窄。
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