美联储集体偏鹰 贵金属冲高回落
美联储集体偏鹰 贵金属冲高回落 本周贵金属市场大幅波动，市场主要关注全球央行会议上美联储主席鲍威尔对于未来货币政策框架的指引。从鲍威尔的表态来看，其暗示了用经济增长放缓换取通胀降温的决心。美元指数跟随美债利率触底反弹。全球风险资产在股市的带领下下跌。
Time:
2022-08-28 15:11
美联储集体偏鹰 贵金属冲高回落
本周贵金属市场大幅波动，市场主要关注全球央行会议上美联储主席鲍威尔对于未来货币政策框架的指引。从鲍威尔的表态来看，其暗示了用经济增长放缓换取通胀降温的决心。美元指数跟随美债利率触底反弹。全球风险资产在股市的带领下下跌。
8月24日美国商务部数据显示，7月耐用品订单环比初值增长0%，此前耐用品订单已经连续4个月上行。美国8月份Markit制造业、服务业、以及综合PMI数据均刷新两年多来新低，连续第二个月跌落“荣枯线”，同时创下2020年5月份来最低值。
美国房地产市场近几个月来显著低迷和恶化，高借贷成本叠加高房价，令买家需求回落。最新的坏消息来自美国新屋销售，该数据在今年7月加速下跌，2022年内已有六个月出现环比下滑，销售量萎缩至六年半以来的最低水平。
整体来看，目前美国经济已经出现了明显的回落趋势，不管是制造业或是服务业，景气指数均显著下滑；而从经济基本面来看，目前的房地产市场，贸易市场以及投资前景均面临下行压力。但是，由于美联储扭转通胀的态度比较坚决，短期之内利率快速上行对融资环境以及资产估值都形成负面压制，而贵金属短期之内也将受到强美元的压制，但是考虑到同样存在的金融风险，避险情绪也会催生贵金属投资价值。
操作策略：
操作上，黄金白银区间操作。
不确定性风险：
全球疫情变化、地缘政治风险、欧美财政与货币政策变化
一、行情回顾
周内金银震荡走弱，伦敦金收盘1737.23美元/盎司，较上周下跌0.55%，伦敦银收盘18.873美元/盎司，较上周下跌0.81%。本周贵金属市场大幅波动，市场主要关注全球央行会议上美联储主席鲍威尔对于未来货币政策框架的指引。从鲍威尔的表态来看，其暗示了用经济增长放缓换取通胀降温的决心。美元指数跟随美债利率触底反弹。全球风险资产在股市的带领下下跌。
二、价格影响因素分析
1、宏观金融
美国8月Markit制造业、服务业、综合PMI续刷两年多新低。其中，服务业、综合PMI连续第二个月陷入收缩区间，经济恶化显著。
美国7月耐用品订单环比初值为0%，低于预期值0.8%。核心耐用品订单环比初值——美国7月扣除飞机非国防资本耐用品订单环比初值增长0.4%，增速高于预期值0.3%，表明尽管利率上升，且市场对经济走弱感到担忧，但设备需求持续增长。
美国7月新屋销售环比大跌12.6%，大幅不及预期的下跌2.5%，6月前值为下跌8.1%。新屋销售在过去七个月中，有六个月环比下跌。7月新屋销售同比大降29.6%。当月新屋销售年化51.1万户，创下2016年1月以来最低，预期为57.5万户，6月前值为59万户。美国房地产市场近几个月来显著低迷和恶化，高借贷成本叠加高房价，令买家需求回落。
美国初请失业金人数连续第二周下降，表明尽管经济不确定性不断增加，但多数雇主仍在留住员工。美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至8月20日当周，首次申请失业金人数减少2，000人，至24.3万人，经济学家普遍预期申请人数为25.2万人。申请失业救济金人数下降表明，市场的劳动力需求依然强劲，因为在劳动力短缺持续的情况下，企业试图吸引和留住员工。
欧元区公布的PMI数据也非常惨淡。数据显示，欧元区8月综合PMI初值录得49.2，创18个月新低；服务业PMI初值录得50.2，创17个月新低。欧元区商业活动萎缩主要源自德国、法国这两大经济体。
密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值从7月的51.5攀升至58.2，为5月份以来的最高水平。消费者预计未来五到十年物价将以每年2.9%的速度攀升，与上月预期持平。他们预计未来一年物价上涨4.8%，低于7月预计的5.2%。美国8月份消费者信心指数升幅超过预估，因未来一年通胀预期下降，表明随着汽油价格继续下跌，美国人变得越来越乐观。
2、持仓分析
截止2022年8月26日，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持有量为984.38吨，较上周减少4.63吨，截止2022年8月23日，COMEX 黄金非商业多头净持仓为125847张，较上周减少15317张。
截止2022年8月26日，SLV 白银 ETF 持有量为14622.85吨，较上周减少322.52吨，截止2022年8月23日，COMEX白银非商业多头净持仓为-4500张，较上周减少8008张。
策略
整体来看，目前美国经济已经出现了明显的回落趋势，不管是制造业或是服务业，景气指数均显著下滑；而从经济基本面来看，目前的房地产市场，贸易市场以及投资前景均面临下行压力。但是，由于美联储扭转通胀的态度比较坚决，短期之内利率快速上行对融资环境以及资产估值都形成负面压制，而贵金属短期之内也将受到强美元的压制，但是考虑到同样存在的金融风险，避险情绪也会催生贵金属投资价值。沪金2212参考区间382-392元/克，沪银2212参考区间4250-4550元/千克。操作上，黄金白银区间操作。
三、相关图表
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