黄金仍有上升动力 关注1800美元
11月11日，受CPI数据推动，周四黄金与白银(21.83, 0.13, 0.60%)价格大涨，周五开盘后，金银价格继续冲高，其中黄金刷新9月份以来新高至1764美元，白银刷新最近5个月新高至22.05美元。 本周我们持续看涨黄金，周四文章《关注CPI数据，黄金保持看涨方向》，准确给出了黄金在1703美元到1700美元的做多支撑位，金价(1774.34, 20.64, 1.18%)盘整试探1703美元后，逐步走高，并在CPI数据公布后，跳涨20美元，达到我们的看涨目标1830美元。 CPI数据公布后，曾提示过大家，美国CPI数据降幅超出预期，美联储降低通胀的努力，初见成效，12月放缓加息步伐的预期得到加强，黄金后市存在进一步上涨的动力。当前金价还在1732美元，刚刚突破1730美元阻力不久，黄金在之后的2小时，又继续上涨了20美元，到周五则升高了近30美元。 美联储为什么要放缓加息步伐？ 美联储持续激进加息，并未有效缓解通胀，哪怕是今天CPI降幅超出预期，也依旧处于近40年来高位，美联储降低通胀的任务，依旧任重道远。 与此同时，大幅加息使得借贷成本进一步增加，给企业和民众带来经济痛苦，目前美国经济已经出现放缓迹象，而这种通过给经济降温和抑制需求，来遏制通胀的方式，可能导致美国经济陷入衰退，数百万人失去工作。 CPI数据公布后，市场为什么反响十分剧烈？ 前段时间我们说过，美联储在11月加息后，承认将放缓加息步伐，市场焦点逐渐转向对经济衰退与金融稳定的担忧。 美联储大幅加息的负面溢出效应，加剧了欧洲的经济困境，并波及到全球其他地区，而美国10月CPI数据降幅超出预期，显示美国通胀有见顶的迹象，这意味着为遏制通胀而采取的激进加息政策，可能出现放缓，甚至尽快暂停加息的情况，这将减缓市场对经济可能衰退的担忧。 美联储可能减少抽水力度，乃至于停止抽水，对全球其他地区的资本市场都有好处，股市的反应最为明显，欧美股市全线飘红，亚太股市也不遑多让，全线大涨，例如今天A股市场，房地产板块就出现大量涨停股。 回到行情本身，金价上涨暂时在前高1765美元附近遇阻，不过从目前的上涨力度来看，向上突破的难度并不大，进一步上涨的空间，是我们在CPI数据公布后，一直提到的1800美元，这是之前黄金下跌走势，底顶转换的位置，月线图布林带中轨、周线图布林带上轨都指向这个价格，黄金试探1800美元的可能性很大。
Time:
2022-11-12 13:21
11月11日，受CPI数据推动，周四黄金与白银(21.83, 0.13, 0.60%)价格大涨，周五开盘后，金银价格继续冲高，其中黄金刷新9月份以来新高至1764美元，白银刷新最近5个月新高至22.05美元。
本周我们持续看涨黄金，周四文章《关注CPI数据，黄金保持看涨方向》，准确给出了黄金在1703美元到1700美元的做多支撑位，金价(1774.34, 20.64, 1.18%)盘整试探1703美元后，逐步走高，并在CPI数据公布后，跳涨20美元，达到我们的看涨目标1830美元。
CPI数据公布后，曾提示过大家，美国CPI数据降幅超出预期，美联储降低通胀的努力，初见成效，12月放缓加息步伐的预期得到加强，黄金后市存在进一步上涨的动力。当前金价还在1732美元，刚刚突破1730美元阻力不久，黄金在之后的2小时，又继续上涨了20美元，到周五则升高了近30美元。
美联储为什么要放缓加息步伐？
美联储持续激进加息，并未有效缓解通胀，哪怕是今天CPI降幅超出预期，也依旧处于近40年来高位，美联储降低通胀的任务，依旧任重道远。
与此同时，大幅加息使得借贷成本进一步增加，给企业和民众带来经济痛苦，目前美国经济已经出现放缓迹象，而这种通过给经济降温和抑制需求，来遏制通胀的方式，可能导致美国经济陷入衰退，数百万人失去工作。
CPI数据公布后，市场为什么反响十分剧烈？
前段时间我们说过，美联储在11月加息后，承认将放缓加息步伐，市场焦点逐渐转向对经济衰退与金融稳定的担忧。
美联储大幅加息的负面溢出效应，加剧了欧洲的经济困境，并波及到全球其他地区，而美国10月CPI数据降幅超出预期，显示美国通胀有见顶的迹象，这意味着为遏制通胀而采取的激进加息政策，可能出现放缓，甚至尽快暂停加息的情况，这将减缓市场对经济可能衰退的担忧。
美联储可能减少抽水力度，乃至于停止抽水，对全球其他地区的资本市场都有好处，股市的反应最为明显，欧美股市全线飘红，亚太股市也不遑多让，全线大涨，例如今天A股市场，房地产板块就出现大量涨停股。
回到行情本身，金价上涨暂时在前高1765美元附近遇阻，不过从目前的上涨力度来看，向上突破的难度并不大，进一步上涨的空间，是我们在CPI数据公布后，一直提到的1800美元，这是之前黄金下跌走势，底顶转换的位置，月线图布林带中轨、周线图布林带上轨都指向这个价格，黄金试探1800美元的可能性很大。
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