美联储主席鲍威尔“鸽派”态度，黄金或将步入主升浪？
一、热点消息分析 1. 鲍威尔:准备利用所有工具确保银行体系的安全和稳健 北京时间2023年3月23日凌晨，美联储宣布加息25个基点，将联邦基金利率区间上调至4.75%-5%，上调储备金余额利率25个基点至4.90%，均符合预期。鲍威尔同时表示：“我们也从这一事件中吸取教训，将继续密切监测形势，准备利用所有工具确保银行体系的安全和稳健。” 2. 欧央行：现西方国家央行再度加息 在欧洲央行和美联储先后宣布继续加息后，瑞士、挪威央行当地时间23日也分别宣布加息。其中，瑞士央行加息50个基点，挪威央行加息25个基点。同一天，英国央行也宣布加息25个基点，将基准利率上调至4.25%，达到2009年以来的最高水平。 3. 分析解读 欧美控制通胀态度明确，维持加息节奏；收紧信贷的程度，市场避险情绪强烈，金价震荡上行。 议息会议关注点是：（1）加息趋于中止，但 23年降息概率较低；（2）系统性风险不大，但会使银行收紧信贷，此时经济受到冲击，因此不必上调加息目标，但收紧信贷的程度不可观测；（3）衰退难以预测，但调降经济增长和失业率表示，今年难降息或将使得衰退概率上升； 除美联储如期加息25个基点并释放鸽派信号升温美联储暂停加息的预期是支撑黄金攀升的主要原因外，市场的避险情绪挥之不去也持续对黄金构成支撑。此外，美债收益率下滑也对黄金构成了一定的支撑。 二、技术分析 黄金日线架构震荡走高。短期小时架构窄幅震荡，在区间上沿和区间下沿震荡调整格局。上方重要阻力在445附近，下方重要支撑在435附近。
Time:
2023-03-24 19:26
一、热点消息分析
1. 鲍威尔:准备利用所有工具确保银行体系的安全和稳健
北京时间2023年3月23日凌晨，美联储宣布加息25个基点，将联邦基金利率区间上调至4.75%-5%，上调储备金余额利率25个基点至4.90%，均符合预期。鲍威尔同时表示：“我们也从这一事件中吸取教训，将继续密切监测形势，准备利用所有工具确保银行体系的安全和稳健。”
2. 欧央行：现西方国家央行再度加息
在欧洲央行和美联储先后宣布继续加息后，瑞士、挪威央行当地时间23日也分别宣布加息。其中，瑞士央行加息50个基点，挪威央行加息25个基点。同一天，英国央行也宣布加息25个基点，将基准利率上调至4.25%，达到2009年以来的最高水平。
3. 分析解读
欧美控制通胀态度明确，维持加息节奏；收紧信贷的程度，市场避险情绪强烈，金价震荡上行。
议息会议关注点是：（1）加息趋于中止，但 23年降息概率较低；（2）系统性风险不大，但会使银行收紧信贷，此时经济受到冲击，因此不必上调加息目标，但收紧信贷的程度不可观测；（3）衰退难以预测，但调降经济增长和失业率表示，今年难降息或将使得衰退概率上升；
除美联储如期加息25个基点并释放鸽派信号升温美联储暂停加息的预期是支撑黄金攀升的主要原因外，市场的避险情绪挥之不去也持续对黄金构成支撑。此外，美债收益率下滑也对黄金构成了一定的支撑。
二、技术分析
黄金日线架构震荡走高。短期小时架构窄幅震荡，在区间上沿和区间下沿震荡调整格局。上方重要阻力在445附近，下方重要支撑在435附近。
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