Gold Market Analysis: Weak US Jobs Data Fuels Strong Gold Rebound
On Thursday, November 16, the US reported a larger-than-expected increase in initial jobless claims last week, further solidifying expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest rate hike cycle. Treasury yields fell, while gold prices surged over 1%, closing at $1,983.29, a 10-day high. The US Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended November 11. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 220,000. The Labor Department's report on jobless claims also showed that continuing claims rose to their highest level in two years. The labor market is slowing as rising interest rates curb demand, consistent with a broader economic slowdown. The jobless claims report is the most timely indicator of economic health. Following the data release, US Treasury yields fell to near two-month lows. In addition, other data released earlier this week showed weakening inflation and slowing consumer spending, strengthening expectations that the Fed's monetary tightening cycle is over. Subsequently, if the following scenarios occur in the market: 1. If US interest rates peak, and the expected decline in US interest rates is greater and earlier compared to other economies, the US dollar will weaken in the future, indirectly benefiting gold. 2. If the US economy enters a recession, with a looming US recession (however mild), the Fed may have to start cutting interest rates before inflation becomes sticky, reducing holding costs and increasing the expected return on gold. When these scenarios occur, gold may continue to benefit and attempt to break higher. From a daily chart perspective, gold prices broke through and stabilized above the previous day's high of 1975, with the candlestick pattern showing two positive candles engulfing one negative candle, indicating strong bullish momentum. The short-term one-hour chart shows an upward trend, with the bottom lows continuously rising, and the highs also continuously rising, indicating that gold is in an upward trend, but the short-term price has deviated significantly, and there is a need for a pullback correction. The previous dense resistance zone of 1970-1975 will become initial support, followed by around 1958. If it breaks above 1990, it is expected to test the 2000 mark again.
Time:
2023-11-17 19:50
On Thursday, November 16, the US reported a larger-than-expected increase in initial jobless claims last week, further solidifying expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest rate hike cycle. Treasury yields fell, while gold prices surged over 1%, closing at $1,983.29, a 10-day high.
The US Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended November 11. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 220,000. The Labor Department's report on jobless claims also showed that continuing claims rose to their highest level in two years. The labor market is slowing as rising interest rates curb demand, consistent with a broader economic slowdown. The jobless claims report is the most timely indicator of economic health. Following the data release, US Treasury yields fell to near two-month lows. Additionally, other data released earlier this week showed weakening inflation and slowing consumer spending, bolstering expectations that the Fed's monetary tightening cycle is over. Subsequently, if the following scenarios occur in the market: 1. If US interest rates peak, and the expected decline in US interest rates is greater and earlier compared to other economies, the US dollar will weaken in the future, indirectly benefiting gold. 2. If the US economy enters a recession, with a looming US recession (however mild), the Fed may have to start cutting interest rates before inflation becomes sticky, reducing holding costs and increasing the expected return on gold. When these scenarios occur, gold may continue to benefit and attempt to break higher.
From a daily chart perspective, gold prices broke through and stabilized above the previous day's high of 1975, with the candlestick pattern showing two positive candles engulfing one negative candle, forming a clear reversal pattern, indicating strong bullish momentum for gold. The short-term hourly chart shows an upward trend, with the bottom lows continuously rising, and the highs also continuously rising, indicating that gold is in an upward trend, but the short-term price has deviated significantly, and there is a need for a pullback correction. The previous dense resistance zone of 1970-1975 will become initial support, followed by around 1958. If it breaks above 1990, it is expected to retest the 2000 mark.
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