Fed officials' comments hinting at rate cuts have led to a stronger gold price trend.
On January 18, the COMEX gold price rose 0.93% to $2025.10 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold 2404 contract night session rose 0.11% to 479.96 yuan per gram. Interest rate cut expectations fluctuate, and internal game intensifies. On the one hand, hawkish remarks are incessant. European Central Bank Governing Council member Knot said that the market is too eager for interest rate cuts, and the more relaxed the market, the less likely it is to cut interest rates; Governing Council member Villeroy believes that it is too early to discuss when the European Central Bank will cut interest rates in 2024; Governing Council member Vasle gave a more detailed statement, pointing out that expectations of an interest rate cut at the beginning of the second quarter are completely premature. IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath further stated that interest rate cuts are expected to take place in the second half of the year rather than the first half, urging central banks not to fuel market expectations of rapid interest rate cuts. On the other hand, Federal Reserve Governor Bostic said he is open to starting interest rate cuts before July if there is "compelling" evidence that inflation is falling faster than expected. This dovish remark may inject a stimulant into the interest rate cut expectations that have just shown signs of receding, and the gold price may have further upward momentum. In addition, geopolitical risks are further spilling over. US President Biden said that the US will continue to conduct air strikes in Yemen. Pakistan launched a series of military strikes against the hideouts of "terrorists" in Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province. From the trend, affected by the latest dovish remarks released by the Federal Reserve, the market's optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts may be improved. Coupled with the further development of geopolitical conflicts, the COMEX gold price is running strongly. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the internal game of interest rate cut expectations and the dynamic development of geopolitical conflicts.
Time:
2024-01-19 19:42
On January 18, the COMEX gold price rose 0.93% to $2025.10 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold 2404 contract night session rose 0.11% to 479.96 yuan per gram.
Expectations of interest rate cuts are fluctuating, with internal struggles intensifying. On the one hand, hawkish remarks are incessant. European Central Bank Governing Council member Knot said that the market is too eager for interest rate cuts, and the more relaxed the market, the less likely interest rate cuts are; Governing Council member Villeroy believes that it is too early to discuss when the European Central Bank will cut interest rates in 2024; Governing Council member Vasle gave a more detailed statement, pointing out that expectations of an early second-quarter interest rate cut are completely premature. IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath further stated that interest rate cuts are expected in the second half of the year rather than the first half, urging central banks not to fuel market expectations of rapid interest rate cuts. On the other hand, Federal Reserve Governor Bostic said he is open to starting interest rate cuts before July if there is "compelling" evidence that inflation is falling faster than expected. This dovish statement may inject a stimulant into the interest rate cut expectations that have just shown signs of ebbing, and the gold price may have further upward momentum.
In addition, the risks of geopolitical crises are further spilling over. US President Biden said that the US will continue to conduct air strikes in Yemen. Pakistan launched a series of military strikes against the hideouts of "terrorists" in Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province.
From the trend, influenced by the latest dovish remarks released by the Federal Reserve, the market's optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts may be boosted. Coupled with the further development of geopolitical conflicts, the COMEX gold price is running strongly. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the internal game of interest rate cut expectations and the dynamic development of geopolitical conflicts.
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