2685! Gold falls back after hitting a new high; beware of risks when buying at high prices
The trend of economic recession remains unchanged, geopolitical conflicts continue, and the Federal Reserve's announcement of a rate cut cycle last week, among other factors, have further highlighted gold's safe-haven function. Although the current price is at a historical high, the market is still generally bullish on the long-term price trend of gold. Analysts believe that for ordinary investors, this is still a good time to 'get on board', but they need to manage risks well and try to choose gold investment products with high liquidity, low leverage, and no credit risk.
Time:
2024-09-27 16:00
The ongoing economic downturn, continued geopolitical conflicts, and the Federal Reserve's announcement of a rate cut cycle last week have all further highlighted gold's safe-haven function. Although the current price is at a historical high, the market remains generally bullish on the long-term price trend of gold. Analysts believe that this is still a good time for ordinary investors to "get on board," but they need to manage risk well and choose gold investment products with high liquidity, low leverage, and no credit risk.
Everbright Futures: Market probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in November slightly decreased.
In terms of speeches, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not discuss monetary policy or economic outlook in his brief opening remarks at the New York Fed. Governor Cook expressed full support for a 50 basis point rate cut. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the labor market and inflation indicate that the economy is on track for a soft landing.
Internationally, the latest data from CME's "Fed Watch" shows a 48.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November and a 51.1% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by December is 28.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 50.2%.
Overall, the remarks of Federal Reserve officials were cautious, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in November has slightly decreased, and gold is still seen as likely to fluctuate strongly.
World Gold Council: Gold Price The current rally seems unlikely to be sustainable in the long term.
John Reade, Senior Market Strategist at the World Gold Council, said that while gold prices broke several records in 2024 amid escalating geopolitical tensions, the price increase is likely to be more moderate in the long run. Gold is essentially a geopolitical commodity, and events this year have driven gold to surpass approximately 30 historical highs. In addition, falling interest rates have pushed up gold prices, and central banks have increased foreign exchange reserves, with Chinese investors also flocking to the gold market. However, these are all short-term factors, and over the next 10 to 20 years, gold prices may only be 2%-3% higher than US inflation.
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Gold prices rise again! Multiple risks fuel safe-haven demand.
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Gold prices return to $3300! Wall Street banks show significant divergence in long-term outlook
In fact, as gold prices fluctuate, Wall Street's major banks have recently shown a clear divergence in their views on gold prices. Unlike Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, which are optimistic about gold's performance, Citigroup believes that the long-term outlook for gold prices is not optimistic.
Although gold prices rose this week, market volatility has clearly increased. While the US-UK agreement is symbolic, its content is limited and insufficient to alleviate concerns about a global economic slowdown. Therefore, gold prices will continue to fluctuate between safe havens and policy signals, closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and global trade sentiment.